Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Is Arnaldi's second serve stronger than Gaston's in recent months? Yes, Arnaldi has won 47.72% of second serve points compared to Gaston's 43.03%.
• Return game strength shows Gaston winning 45.76% of second serve return points, slightly ahead of Arnaldi's 42.74%.
• Arnaldi slightly outperforms Gaston on first serve returns, winning 27.16% compared to Gaston’s 24.68%.
• Who's better at saving breakpoints? Gaston edges out with 54.66% saved compared to Arnaldi's 53.89%.
• In the past year, Arnaldi has a marginally better win rate (51.02%) than Gaston (50%).
• Clay is the favored surface for both: Arnaldi has a 65% win rate, while Gaston records 60% on this surface.
• Arnaldi competes mostly at the Masters level with a 57.14% win rate, whereas Gaston has a slightly lower record on the Main tour at 48.15%.
• On average, Arnaldi faces tougher opponents with a ranking of 61.61, in comparison to Gaston's opponents ranked at 111.78 on average.
• If the match reaches a deciding set, Gaston has a superior record, winning 64% compared to Arnaldi’s 44%.
• Gaston has a higher breakpoint conversion rate in recent form at 30.6%, over Arnaldi's 26.95%.

Editorial Prediction (May 18, 2025, UTC):

In examining the recent performance data, Arnaldi shows superiority in his second serve point wins, suggesting a slight advantage when under control of the serve. However, Gaston's stronger return game, particularly on second serves, provides a significant counterbalance. This makes the match hinged on pivotal moments rather than consistent serve dominance.

While both players demonstrate competency on clay, Arnaldi's slightly higher win percentage could give him a narrow edge here. Arnaldi consistently faces top-tier opponents, indicating readiness for high-level play which might benefit him under pressure. Nevertheless, Gaston's aptitude for converting breakpoints and his better record in deciding sets suggests he has the poise to capitalize on crucial moments.

Though both have strengths in different areas, it may come down to who handles the key points better under pressure. Therefore, the prediction is nuanced, yet leaning toward Gaston as the more likely victor, given his ability to convert opportunities and his track record in tight-set scenarios.